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USDA slashes grain shipment projections following Russian-Ukrainian war

The fighting in Ukraine has prompted the US Department of Agriculture to cut its forecast for world grain imports, as well as exports from the Black Sea region.

In its latest monthly report on global supply and demand, the USDA forecasts global wheat exports in 2022 to fall by 3.6 million metric tonnes from last month’s estimate of 206.7 million. tonnes, which would disrupt shipping from Black Sea ports.

Imports from major buyer countries like Egypt and Turkey are expected to decline for both corn and wheat globally, the USDA said, largely due to the disruption in Russian supplies and Ukrainian.

“Russia’s recent military action in Ukraine has significantly increased the uncertainty of agricultural supply and demand conditions in the region and globally,” the USDA said in the report.

Grain futures at the Chicago Board of Trade are down after the release of global agricultural supply and demand estimates, although grain traders add that high price volatility in recent days has put a brake on post-report movements. Corn is now down 2.3%; soybeans are down 0.5% and wheat is down 7.1%.

Traders say they expect future reports for the month to show the adjustment of trade flows to other countries to account for the absence of Ukrainian and Russian exports. “Going forward, the focus will be on the Russian war against Ukraine and the transfer of agricultural trade to the Americas, Europe, Australia and Canada,” agricultural research firm AgResource said on Wednesday. in a note.