The global smartphone and tablet market is going through a tough time as the shipments are not that high. The global smartphone market seems to be better than the tablet market. For the tablet market, analysts predict that its decline will continue until 2023. IDC’s latest report shows that this year’s global smartphone shipments will decline 6.5% to $1.27 billion. In addition, the report predicts that prices will increase by 6.3%. The main reason is that due to the influence of inflation and geopolitics, consumer demand has been strongly suppressed.
According to the latest Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker from International Data Corporation (IDC), the latest forecast is down 3 percentage points from the previous forecast. However, analysts also say that the pullback is only short-lived and that the market will rebound in 2023. IDC predicts that it will rebound with an annual growth rate of 5.2% and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR ) over 5 years of 1.4. % long-term.
IDC analysts speak
Nabila Popal, Research Director of IDC’s Worldwide Mobile and Consumer Device Tracker, said:
The supply constraints that had weighed on the market since last year have eased. The industry has turned to a market where demand is limited. Channel inventory is high, demand is weak, and there are no immediate signs of recovery, causing OEMs to panic and reduce orders for 2022. Events over the past 12 months have reduced our market forecast for the second quarter of 2021 of 150 million units. The average price (ASP) rose 10% year-over-year in the second quarter and would likely rise 6.3% for the full year, despite lower volumes.
High-end smartphones ($800 and up) have proven themselves amid the economic turmoil. They managed to increase their share of the overall smartphone market by 4 percentage points to 16% and continue to grow. This includes foldables, the fastest growing segment right now, with foldable shipments expected to increase 70% year-over-year to reach 13.5 million units by 2022.
The differences can be quite significant in terms of regions. IDC estimates that the North American market will be less affected, while the Chinese market, Central and Eastern Europe and other regions will be more affected. The organization said
Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will shrink by 17.4% in 2022, while Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan and China), which was previously expected to grow by 3.0%, is expected to decline by 4.5% in 2022. However, the biggest drop in sales is in the Chinese market. In this market, we expect sales to decline by 12.5% to approximately 41 million units. This represents almost half of the overall decline in sales this year.
In contrast, developed markets such as North America (US and Canada) and Western Europe are expected to perform better in 2022. The US market will be relatively stable, up 0.3% from year-on-year, while the Canadian market will be slightly better, up 3.2% year-on-year. Western Europe will experience only a slight decline of 0.7%.
IDC estimates that global shipments of 5G devices will increase 23.6% year-over-year in 2022. They will also account for more than half (54%) of all shipments with 688 million devices and a $616 ASP. Long-term, 5G models are expected to reach a 79% market share in 2026 with an ASP of $444. By comparison, 4G ASP will hit $176 in 2022. IDC thinks it will drop to $106 by the end of the year. As a result, the overall smartphone ASP will drop from $413 in 2022 to $373 in 2026.
“The resilience of the upper market is a testament to the success of iOS, which has not seen a full-year drop in shipments since 2019,” said Anthony Scarcella, research director for IDC’s Worldwide Mobile and Consumer Device Tracker. . He adds
“Despite the decline in the overall market, iOS shipments will maintain 0.5% growth in 2022. Additionally, the operating system will show minimal growth throughout the forecast period, with asp above $950. As for the most popular operating system in the world, Android, 2022 will see a decline of almost 8% but will rebound strongly with a growth of 6.2% in 2023. Unfortunately, the low-end segment won’t fare well in 2022, with shipments of Android devices under $200 leading the way. The good news is that sales of devices over $1,000 have increased by 35.2%, thanks to the success of high-end flagships and recent foldable devices in the market. »
IDC: Global PC and tablet shipments expected to decline further in 2022 and 2023
According to the latest forecast report from the International Data Corporation (IDC) worldwide, personal computing devices, PC and tablet market are about to usher in a turbulent period. IDC expects global traditional PC shipments to decline 12.8% to 305.3 million units in 2022. Additionally, tablet shipments will drop 6.8% to 156.8 million. units. There are three main reasons for the drop in shipments over the next two years. The reasons are meinflation, a weak global economy and a surge in shopping.
IDC noted that further contraction is expected in 2023 as consumer demand slows. This is on top of the fact that the demand for education has largely been met and macroeconomic conditions are deteriorating. In addition, business demand is also down. The PC and tablet market is expected to decline by 2.6% in 2023 before returning to growth in 2024.
Jitesh Ubrani, Research Director at IDC Mobility and Consumer Device Trackers, said “although demand is slowing, the outlook for shipments is still above pre-pandemic levels.”
“As economic headwinds gather pace, we expect deteriorating consumer confidence to drive further contraction in the consumer market over the next six quarters,” added Linn Huang, vice president of research for devices and screens. Part of our forecast growth for the outer years. Although sales will not peak at the time of the pandemic, we expect the consumer market to move to the high end of the market. »